Tempered pleasure

Tuning tempered transitions

The method of tempered transitions was proposed by Neal (1996) for tackling the difficulties arising when using Markov chain Monte Carlo to sample from multimodal distributions. In common with methods such as simulated tempering and Metropolis-coupled MCMC, the key idea is to utilise a series of successively easier to sample distributions to improve movement around the state space. Tempered tra...

Tempered stable and tempered infinitely divisible GARCH models

In this paper, we introduce a new GARCH model with an infinitely divisible distributed innovation, referred to as the rapidly decreasing tempered stable (RDTS) GARCH model. This model allows the description of some stylized empirical facts observed for stock and index returns, such as volatility clustering, the non-zero skewness and excess kurtosis for the residual distribution. Furthermore, we...

Tempered best response dynamics

We propose a new deterministic evolutionary dynamic—the tempered best response dynamic (tBRD)—to capture two features of economic decision making: optimization and continuous sensitivity to incentives. That is, in the tBRD, an agent is more likely to revise his action when his current payoff is further from the optimal payoff, and he always switches to an optimal action when revising. The tBRD ...

The Well-tempered Computer

The psychological mechanism by which even musically untutored people can comprehend novel melodies resembles that by which they comprehend sentences of their native language. The paper identifies a syntax, a semantics, and a domain or “model”. These elements are examined in application to the task of harmonic comprehension and analysis of unaccompanied melody, and a computational theory is argu...

The Well-Tempered Critic